As we step into the new year, it's hard to ignore the huge shifts that the real estate and mortgage markets have undergone in the last year and a half. None of us could have predicted the surge in interest rates that caught many by surprise. The repercussions have been felt far and wide, especially by those locked into high-interest mortgages who are eagerly counting the days until they can break free.
With it being my 7th year in a row being able to help over 125 families with their financial needs, I am extremely thankful that I have had the opportunity to help many people despite the tough market. The housing market, contrary to expectations, has displayed remarkable resilience and did not seem to flinch. Home values not only held steady but actually went up north of 7%.
This unexpected surge in home values poses an interesting thought. If the real estate market thrived with interest rates ranging from 7% to 8%, one can't help but wonder what could happen if rates dropped to the 5s or potentially even the 4s. The build-up of homebuyers on the sidelines, eagerly waiting for an opportune moment, could lead to a surge in deals.
According to a Bloomberg analysis of Census Bureau data, 42% of homes in America are mortgage-free. This untapped group of homeowners could potentially enter the market, providing an infusion of inventory for the 3-5 million buyers eagerly waiting for their chance to make their dream purchase.
The past 2 years I’ve been carefully monitoring inflation, more specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The moves by the Federal Reserve to raise federal interest rates were to beat and control inflation. So now, the spotlight shifts to the 10-year treasury. Which in fact, shows a consistent alignment with the 30-year fixed rate for the past 30 years.
And recently, we’ve seen the Fed and several economists that the 10-year treasury could drop as low in the upper 2s or lower 3s. Observing the trend based on this graph, it becomes evident that if the 10-year treasury does hit the 3% mark, fixed-rate mortgages may hover in the upper 4s to low 5s—a possibility on the horizon for 2024.
Amidst this dynamic landscape, my outlook remains extremely optimistic. I foresee 2024 as a fantastic year for the housing market and mortgage rates alike. This is a bold, data backed estimate of where I believe mortgage rates will land in 2024. Let me know your thoughts? How close do you think this prediction is to your thoughts?
To further support the community, I conduct homebuyer classes every month. Whether you're looking to sell or buy, I'm here to lend my expertise and make your real estate journey a seamless one. Let's make 2024 the year you can get into your dream home!
VIDEO: Seattle Mortgage Rate Prediction For 2024 with Dan Keller
Watch the video I made if you would like to hear more in-depth details behind my prediction.
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